A mathematical model for residential planning in Richards Bay

Abstract

The formulation of a systems dynamics model which was applied to obtain forecasts of important urban variables such as population and housing, is discussed. It is shown that the model simulated the growth trends in the town, at least for the period for which data was available, satisfactorily. A sensitivity analysis of the model was carried out and no sensitive parameters were identified during the 6 year simulation interval. An optimisation strategy by which the occupation rate of housing was restricted to certain limits, is also discussed.