Decision management - projects subject to uncertainty

Abstract

The human mind is normally unable to grasp more than five to nine aspects relating to the same decision circumstances simultaneously. It has been demonstrated that only between four and eight variables significantly affect return on engineering projects (at the 90% level) irrespective of scale. The most powerful means of isolating these significant variables is by computer simulation. This is demonstrated through the application of the interactive CASPAR programme to a simulated mining project. The significant variables are separated into controllable, influence able and uncontrollable categories for decision and control purposes since the nature of the speculative risk differs. The managerial treatment of each category is discussed.