A choice reduction model for the concept phase of a weapon system

Abstract

During the concept phase of a weapon system it is often necessary to decide between a number of different development or purchasing options. This typically involves using a multidimensional value system that incorporates aspects such as performance, cost, risk, logistics and time-scales. This paper describes a model which assists in the choice in the performance dimension by including application battlefield scenarios in the analysis, and calculating the relative worth of competing systems based on the expected utility of the component weapon system attributes. The author would like to acknowledge the contributions of Mr B L Logan and Mr A E Heijdenrijch in the development of the model. This project would not have been possible without their suggestions and support, especially on the detail procedures for implementing the model.